Daily iron ore price update (pure seasonality)

Iron ore prices for November 19, 2020:

Everything up!

You will read elsewhere that Chinese demand for steel is booming and that is driving up prices. This is wrong. This is pure seasonality and iron ore is driving up steel prices despite record-high inventories seasonally-adjusted:

This is the year-end restock I have warned about for months. It will run through much of Q1 as well and may even spike if La Nina dumps heavy rains on Brazil.

But seasonal it is and the price will crash into Q2 as supply meets declining underlying demand. Empties are slowing in trend terms:

This si the blow-off before the bust.

Share

About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.