Did the Chinese credit cycle just peak?

Friday 11 December 2020

There is a goodly chance that it did. Last night’s PBOC new yuan loans came in at 2.13tr total social financing with banks at 1.43 tr:

Non-bank lending has started to fall away as local government budgets tighten:

New loans flow came off hard year on year:

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.