Fungible is the word. Via the AFR:
ANZ’s senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said there was clear evidence that Australian coal had found other homes.
“We are just starting to get data from various sources showing that all the numbers for thermal and metallurgical coal are holding up,” Mr Hynes said.
“Commodity markets are a zero sum game. When China pulls resources from another source that just means some other country has to find a new place to buy.”
Mr Hynes said Japan, India and South Korea were likely to have sought more coal from Australia.
Despite China’s trade restrictions on barley, wine and beef, Australia’s rural exports were up 18.4 per cent in December. Cereal exports jumped due to good growing conditions in eastern Australia and less supply from global competitors. The jump in rural exports follows solid gains in both October and November of 7.6 per cent and 3.8 per cent respectively.
India gobbling up coking coal while the rest of Asia takes the thermal:
Hard coking (high rank) coal, Nov-20 to Dec-20 Value ($m) Value (%) Quantity (%) Unit Value (%) High rank coal – Total movement 501 38 28 7 India 268 62 43 13 Japan 108 54 55 -1 Korea, Republic of (South) 85 83 59 15 Brazil 30 97 – -5 China (excludes SARs and Taiwan) -59 -70 -67 -9 – nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
Semi soft coal, movement by country, Nov-20 to Dec-20 Value ($m) Value (%) Quantity (%) Unit Value (%) Semi soft coal – Total movement -24 -4 -11 8 Taiwan -34 -60 -57 -6 India -13 -7 -13 7 Korea, Republic of (South) 30 32 19 11 – nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
Thermal Coal, movement by country, Nov-20 to Dec-20 Value ($m) Value (%) Quantity (%) Unit Value (%) Thermal coal – Total movement 284 27 25 1 Japan 130 25 26 -1 Taiwan 58 78 83 -3 Korea, Republic of (South) 34 23 17 5 Thailand 32 – – 37 – nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
In rural goods, it is too early for Chinese bans or adjustments to flow through. Though La Nina has unleashed a volumes boom driven by cereals:
Weather is a much bigger deal to rural export volumes than CCP silliness is.
Meanwhile, the Poms are guzzling the wine, via BBC:
Sales of Australian wine to the UK have surged almost 30% in the last year as producers try to overcome crippling taxes on exports to China.
Wine producers have ramped up exports to Europe to a 10-year high, with the UK now the number one destination.
China increased taxes by a massive 212% in November following a trade spat with Australia which has also affected goods including lobsters and coal.
Wine Australia said the UK sales surge was helped by lockdowns and Brexit.
The value of wine exports to Europe climbed 22% last year, while “standout performer” the UK saw shipments jump 29% according to government figures.
Wine Australia, a government organisation set up to promote and regulate the wine industry, said demand increased at the start of the coronavirus pandemic and was boosted in the months leading up to Brexit.
The sharp rise in sales to Europe helped offset a big slump in exports to China in the last two months of 2020.
…The UK is now the biggest destination for Australian wine exports by volume, with Brits buying up 266 million litres (29.6 million cases) in 2020.
