Regional migration is at its highest since 2018, according to a report by the Commonwealth Bank and the Regional Australia Institute, with regional migration up 7% cent in the March quarter when compared to the same period in 2020.
The Gold Coast in Queensland was the most popular destination for people moving from the capital cities, followed by Queensland’s Sunshine Coast, Greater Geelong in Victoria, then Wollongong and Newcastle in NSW. All five are large coastal centres close to capital cities.
The number of people who made this move [to regional Australia] in the March 2021 quarter is 7 per cent more than in the March 2020 quarter. This latest level of movement is also the largest since early 2018.
Since the March 2020 quarter, an increasing number of people have departed capital cities for regional areas, driving an increasing share of all internal movements (up by 0.7 percentage points) over the past year.
Meanwhile regional people have been staying in place, accounting for a declining share of total internal movements (down by 0.2 percentage points over the year). This has led to an increase in net migration into regional areas.
These dynamics have driven the net regional migration index in the latest quarter to be 66 per cent higher than a year earlier…
The largest numbers of capital city dwellers who are moving to regional Australia are heading for the high population coastal centres proximate to capital cities.
The Gold Coast is the most popular destination among people moving from capitals to regions. The Glitter Strip welcomed 11 per cent of all capital city dwellers who moved to regional areas during the March 2021 quarter. The next most popular destinations were the Sunshine Coast, Greater Geelong, Wollongong and Newcastle.
The Sunshine Coast recorded the largest growth in migration from capital cities compared with the other Top 5 LGAs. Migration to the Sunshine Coast grew by 24 per cent in the March 2021 quarter, and by 14 per cent over the year.
In the March 2021 quarter, the Queensland municipalities of Noosa and Southern Downs saw the largest growth in inward migration from capitals among all LGAs. This was followed by Port Macquarie-Hastings in New South Wales and Launceston in Tasmania. Fraser Coast in QLD locked in 3 of the top 5 growth areas for Queensland…
In the March 2021 quarter, the bulk of net outflows from all capital cities came from Sydney and Melbourne. Net outflows from these cities accounted for 49.5 per cent and 46.4 per cent of all net outflows, respectively (95.9 per cent of all net outflows combined).
Regional NSW and Regional Queensland are the main beneficiaries of the Sydney-Melbourne exodus, followed closely by regional Victoria. These states’ regional areas accounted for the largest shares of people settling in regional areas in the March 2021 quarter (32.4 per cent, 28.8 per cent and 27.8 per cent, respectively).
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This data helps to explain why dwelling value growth was far stronger across the regions (15.2%) than the capital cities (9.4%) in the year to June:
Regional property booming.
Policy makers have been trying (but failing) to decentralise Australia for decades. The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic has finally achieved this outcome.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
