Daily iron ore price update (the pig passes)

Monday 7 June 2021

The ferrous complex was mixed Friday with spot down, paper up overnight and steel firm as well. But that all misses the point. This market is showing signs of early trouble:

Why am I getting nervous? CISA late May steel output fell heavily:

It is not unusual for May production to pull back a little and the trend for output is still up. But the second derivative tells the story as year on year growth tumbles:

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.