The federal government’s plan to reopen the economy once 80% of Australians aged 16+ have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 is based on advice from the Doherty Institute.
However, a group of economists and medical researchers has warned that this threshold is too low. They contend that the government should instead aim to fully vaccinate 90%, including children.
Australian National University economics professor Quentin Grafton says that retaining the 80% threshold could potentially result in 25,000 deaths from COVID-19 and some 270,000 cases of so-called ‘long Covid’.
From The Australian:
“Assuming 80 per cent vaccination coverage for only those over 16, as per the national plan, there could be approximately 25,000 fatalities and some 270,000 cases of long Covid,” [ANU economics professor Quentin Grafton] said.
“In contrast, and if children are also fully vaccinated, national fatalities – for all age groups – would be reduced to 19,000 with 80 per cent adult vaccination coverage. This would fall to 10,000 at a 90 per cent adult vaccination coverage…
University of Western Australia medical researcher Zoe Hyde said there would still be a substantial number of deaths under the best possible vaccine coverage.
“Even if the country achieves the four steps we are calling for, fully relaxing public health measures to eliminate community transmission could still, eventually, result in some 5000 fatalities and 40,000 cases of long Covid,” she said.
“For all these reasons and more, it’s simply too dangerous to treat Covid-19 like the flu.”
Economist Phil Soos rightly pointed out that forecasts of Australian COVID deaths were wildly exaggerated last year:
Anyone remember when the authorities were spouting nonsense that 150,000 people could die of COVID-19?
Only off by a factor of more than 150x.https://t.co/HJV9amPb80
— Philip Soos (@PhilipSoos) August 22, 2021
So why should we believe these dire forecasts now?
Moreover, lots of activities such as smoking and drinking alcohol are deadly and far more preventable than COVID deaths, yet the government allows them to remain:
Tobacco kills 24k people annually, and is the leading preventable cause of death and disease – yet the government allows it. It appears some deaths are more equal than others. We know why: to protect the gigantic sunk cost fallacy of the lockdowns.
— Philip Soos (@PhilipSoos) August 23, 2021
Australia’s policy makers need to balance the ‘costs’ of lockdowns against the ‘benefits’ of preventing COVID illness.
Keeping Aussies locked down for months on end as we await for a 90% vaccination rate is a ‘bridge too far’ and does not properly balance benefits with costs.
There is more to life than avoiding death.
