There is no better example of pointless handwringing about Afghanistan than that offered up by Paul Kelly and his asylum of failed PMs on the weekend:
The ignominious rout in Afghanistan triggered by President Joe Biden is the latest evidence of the strategic wake-up call Australia needs to make – rethinking the US alliance in terms of our rhetoric, our responsibilities and our self-reliance.
There are now dramatically competing visions of America. Take your choice between Biden’s early 2021 pledge to the world that “America is back” aiming to “repair alliances and engage with the world”, and his personal capitulation to the Taliban while pouring inexcusable abuse and blame on the Afghans who were America’s partners for 20 years. This is self-serving moral infamy.
…While Donald Trump was a known untrustworthy president, Biden’s Afghanistan call is so devoid of judgment and courage that it raises a fog of doubt about Biden himself and about America’s democratic sustenance as a reliable great power.
Tony Abbott, a realist on Afghanistan, told Inquirer: “I fear that the fall of Kabul and the return of the Taliban is not just a catastrophe but a strategic watershed as well. How much fight is left in Biden’s America? More than currently seems I suspect, but that’s the question that all US allies must now ponder and adjust to accordingly,” he said.
…Kevin Rudd told Inquirer: “The Australian public and body politic needs to understand we are in the midst of a profound paradigm shift in global and regional geopolitics. It’s about the rise and rise of China and an America that continues to question itself about its future strategic role in the region and the world.
…Malcolm Turnbull told Inquirer: “I respect the decision President Biden took in the circumstances. Biden’s defence of his position is the same as Trump’s. Yet the outcome is appalling and many people are left abandoned. This has damaged America’s standing and prestige.
…John Howard was measured but firm in his criticism of Biden. He told Inquirer: “I can understand the argument that Americans were getting weary of the prolonged involvement in Afghanistan. This decision had to be America’s call. But I am critical of the deal Donald Trump negotiated with the Taliban and in the process sidelining the Afghan government.
The frail five have had one too many prune juices. There is no message in this about America and its intentions with other allies. It has done the sensible thing and gotten out of dodge in the graveyard of empires.
The only mistake was not doing so fifteen years ago. America spent $3tr (drawn from credit, not cash, with interest that’s $10tr by 2050) and over 5000 service people’s lives trying to rebuild the arse end of the world into a functional democracy.
Nobody should be surprised it didn’t work. The Afghans have been driving out invaders since the days of Alexander the Great. The place is nearly impossible to subdue owing to its geography, fragmented and martial society.
As for the schmozzle and collapse of the retreat itself, so what. These kinds of large military projects are usually a mess.
More importantly, the spectacular speed of collapse as America withdrew is all we need to justify it. If the regime was so fragile after two generations of NATO troops and $3tr, then what was the point of being there at all?
A hard-nosed calculus concludes that America is much stronger for the exit and, therefore, so are its allies. The counter-factual is clear: how can bleeding more lives and another $10-20tr to 2050 into the barbaric fringe of the world make America stronger?
Australia’s two legends of strategic thinking, Owen Harries and Coral Bell, would council very different conclusions to the frail five.
Owen would be thrilled that the Afghan boil has finally been lanced and celebrate the strengthening of US realism. He would note that if non-state actors become bothersome again then that can is easily kicked, versus the risks of imperial overreach.
Coral would calmly remind us that such failures are commonplace in history and open possibilities for state actors to bring new pressures to bear upon non-state.
Both would be rolling in their graves at the sentimental mush peddled by just about everybody.
