Goldman with the note:
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W. Va.) has attracted substantial attention with an op-edin the Wall Street Journal regarding his views on upcoming fiscal legislation. In it, he calls for a “strategic pause” on consideration of the $3.5 trillion/10 years budget reconciliation legislation, which Democratic leaders hope to assemble in committees over the next two weeks and to pass in the House before the end of September. He cites uncertainty regarding the economy, public health, and foreign policy among the reasons to slow the process, and clearly indicates discomfort with a $3.5trillion price tag.
While the op-ed has led to media coverage highlighting the risk Sen. Manchin’s position poses to the Biden administration’s agenda, it does not change our own views on fiscal policy this year, for three reasons. First, Manchin has not said he objects to passing a large fiscal package through the reconciliation process with only Democratic votes. Instead, he objects to the “rush”to pass the legislation using that process, and to the size of the package. Slowing down the bill works in favor of centrist Democrats like Manchin, who sits on committees that will write only a small part of the bill (less than 10% of the $3.5 trillion). Since amending the bill on the Senate floor would be difficult, the best way for centrists to influence the bill is to slow the process down so they can weigh in on the details before the bill is written.
