Victoria’s COVID outbreak worsens with another 208 cases

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As Melburnians awake to their 215th day of lockdown since the pandemic began – the second longest lockdown in the world (behind Buenos Aires) – they also awake to the dour news that Victoria has recorded another 208 locally acquired COVID cases:

Of the 208 locally acquired cases, only 96 have been linked to known cases and outbreaks.

The next chart plots the explosion in daily cases:

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Daily cases

Virus breakout.

Victoria’s case growth is beginning to look like NSW:

Daily cases

Turning NSW.

As the state’s active cases climb toward 1200:

Active COVID cases

Toward 1200.

Meanwhile, an analysis of yesterday’s cases shows the virus spread broadening beyond Western Melbourne:

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Victorian virus

Virus broadening.

Finally, there are worries that Victoria’s virus outbreak could be much worse than reported given the proportion of Covid patients who are in hospital is 5.6% in Victoria versus 4.7% in NSW. Likewise, the proportion of cases in intensive care is 2.1% in Victoria and just 0.7% in NSW, according to the Herald-Sun.

Health authorities are concerned that many people are not being diagnosed with Covid until they become sick enough to attend an emergency department.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.