NSW COVID cases continue to soar

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NSW recorded another 8,911 new COVID cases and only one death:

Victoria recorded 5,499 new COVID and also only one death:

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Daily cases are plotted below since the beginning of the Delta waves last winter:

Active cases have surged in NSW, whereas Victoria’s are steady:

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However, COVID hositalisations remain flat and well below prior peaks:

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Whereas COVID deaths have fallen sharply:

Active cases nationally (plotted to 13 March) are trending higher, whereas hospitalisations are flat:

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Part of the reason why active cases are rising is because of the sharp rise in Western Australia after it reopened its border earlier this month:

With NSW cases rising, Premier Dominic Perrottet has warned that further waves of COVID can be expected, adding that he has not been advised that the state’s existing restrictions need to be changed. Health Minister Brad Hazzard recently warned that the emerging BA.2 strain of the Omicron variant will see daily case numbers rise sharply in coming weeks.

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Meanwhile, modelling suggests that the BA.2 strain of the Omicron variant is likely to peak in Australia in mid-April, which may coincide with the start of the federal election campaign. The BA.2 strain is expected to soon become the dominant variant of COVID-19 in NSW.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.