TS Lombard with a solid if a plodding note to help frame Ukraine’s impacts. I personally think that long-tail outcomes such as credit events and global recession are much more likely than this analysis suggests.
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⚫ We are more cautious owing to the exceptional geopolitical uncertainty
⚫ Risk asset valuations have adjusted but not enough to buy the dip yet
⚫ Bond yields upside is now more limited owing to rising recession risks
