Sydney and Melbourne house prices are FALLING

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CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index recorded a 0.05% rise in the week ended 14 April:

CoreLogic weekly dwelling values change

As shown below, both Sydney (-0.11%) and Melbourne (-0.03%) recorded value falls, whereas solid-to-strong rises were recorded across the other major capitals:

CoreLogic weekly dwelling values movements
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So far in April, Sydney’s and Melbourne’s dwelling values have fallen, whereas the other major capitals have risen strongly:

Month-to-date dwelling value movements

Quarterly dwelling value growth shows a similar trend, with Sydney and Melbourne again recording value falls while the other major capitals have risen:

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CoreLogic quarterly movements

The next chart plots quarterly dwelling value growth as a time series, with Sydney and Melbourne plunging into the red:

Australian quarterly dwelling value growth
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The primary reason is because listings volumes have risen in Sydney and Melbourne, whereas they have shrunk elsewhere:

Total for sale listings

Given Sydney and Melbourne are the most expensive capital cities in the nation, they will be more sensitive to interest rate rises.

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Home owners in both cities should brace for substantial value falls as mortgage rates ratchet higher.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.