It’s been one of the worst starts to a calendar year for US stocks – since 1939 in fact – and as we hit the halfway point (or starting point of a new financial year) its still fascinating to see the majority of forecasters in a bullish mood:
The S&P500 started 2022 at 4770 points and is now at 3825 points, basically a 20% loss, yet the majority of forecasters (the ever bearish Morgan Stanley, standing out) are indicating a 17% rally from here!
With interest rates in the US forecast to rise another 170 basis points (down from 200 forecast at the start of the year), inflation and energy prices still at sky high levels plus a probable recession on the horizon, this is very bullish, particularly when valuations are coming off historic highs and are still more than 43% above the historic average:
