Here’s a MySteel report for you to digest. The most significant component of the data is the recovery in rebar consumption and output. This is probably led by the infrastructure push which can be very lumpy and so enjoy periods of growth within quarters even if year-over-year comparisons are less flattering. There may be some resumption of apartment projects in it too, given firms like Evergrande ave restarted swathes of shuttered projects.
However, I still think this won’t last as the below chart has its day.
Mysteel survey data shows the output of concrete and cement increased significantly in Sep. Last week, US Federal Reserve announced another 75-bp rate hike, and the bearish sentiment had almost completely priced in. In addition, a rare address of Russian President Vladimir Putin to the nation last week may worsen the Russia-Ukrain tension, boosting China’s HRC export. Mysteel Research & Consulting expects the price trend of major steel products to strengthen upon the estimation of hot metal supply to remain at 2.4 million tonnes at low steelmaking profits and rising downstream demand as the demand usually picks up in the week before the Chinese National Day Holiday (1st – 7th Oct.)( hereinafter referred to as “the Golden Week”).
