As of Wednesday, dwelling values across Australia’s five major capital city markets had declined by 6.1% from their recent peak, led by Sydney (-9.6%), Melbourne (-6.0%) and Brisbane (-5.5%):
Sydney leads house price falls.
Property experts at Wednesday’s Citi Australia and New Zealand Investment Conference warned that Australian house prices will tumble between 15% and 20% peak to trough, with falls tipped to accelerate in 2023:
The housing market will tumble between 15 and 20 per cent peak to trough, with an acceleration to the downturn coming in 2023, property market figures have warned…
Liberty Financial chief executive James Boyle… argued the housing market was probably still on track for a 20 per cent fall…
While [Pepper Money treasurer Anthony Moir] tipped a 15 per cent drop in house prices, IFM Investors executive director Hiran Wanigasekera is expecting an even greater [20%] decline, with the exuberance in the market through the pandemic an anomaly that “has to be corrected”…
In a separate session, the country’s largest listed residential developer, Stockland, warned of a 15 per cent peak to trough fall in house prices.
Personally, I cannot see an acceleration in price falls, given the quarterly rate of decline has already bottomed at the 5-city aggregate level:
House price falls slowing.
As to whether prices nationally will tumble 15% to 20% peak-to-trough, we’ll have to wait and see. It depends on whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is nearing the end of its rate hiking cycle.
Regardless, Australian dwelling values are already falling at their fastest pace on record and are almost certain to exceed the record 5-city decline of 10.7% recorded between 2017-19:
Australian house prices falling at record pace.
How far prices tumble below this level is in the hands of the RBA. Grab the popcorn and enjoy the show.
