Australia’s house price correction slows

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CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index, which records value changes across the five major Australian capital cities, fell another 0.24% in the week ended 27 October:

Weekly house price change

It was the 25th consecutive week of price decline, although the pace of decline has clearly decelerated.

Dwelling values fell across all major capital cities, with Brisbane falling hardest:

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Weekly house price movements

So far in October, dwelling values at the 5-city aggregate level have fallen by 1.02%, led by Brisbane (-1.69%). Adelaide (-0.25%) and Perth (-0.19%) continue to hold up better with each experiencing only small price falls:

October house price movements
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The quarterly pace of decline has slowed to 4.1% at the 5-city aggregate level (i.e. circa -16% on an annualised basis), with Brisbane (-5.4%) and Sydney (-5.4%) now tied for the sharpest rates of decline. By contrast, values across Perth (-0.7%) and Adelaide (-0.6%) continue to fall slowly:

Quarterly house price change

So far, dwelling values at the 5-city aggregate level have fallen 6.7% from their most recent peak, with Sydney values down by 10.2% and Melbourne (-6.4%) and Brisbane (-6.3%) also recording solid losses. By comparison, Perth and Adelaide values are continuing to hold up, with values down less than 1% across both cities:

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Decline in house prices from peak

With the Reserve Bank of Australia widely tipped to hike interest rates again on Tuesday followed by another rate increase in December, Australian house prices will continue to fall for the foreseeable future.

But at least the rate of decline has eased, with values bleeding out more slowly.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.