Barclays with a wrap that I agree with. I put the odds of a flip on zero-COVID a little higher than for realty but both are low.
September PMIs suggests economy remains under pressure
Despite conflicting official and non-official manufacturing PMIs, we think the two indices send a consistent message of slowing exports. In contrast to improved NBS manufacturing PMI, the Caixin manufacturing PMI, which surveys more private SMEs and export-oriented firms, surprised by falling to 48.1 in September from 49.5 in August. The weaker export-intensive Caixin manufacturing PMI is consistent with the notable decline in the NBS manufacturing PMI for new exports orders (down 1.1pp to 47.0 in September). A high-frequency indicator showing container throughput at eight major ports (which tends to move in tandem with exports) declined 3% in the first 20 days of September, the first decline this year. Meanwhile, regional macro data (eg, Korea trade) also points to weakness in exports in September. We think weakening external demand amid a looming global recession, suggests more headwinds for the manufacturing sector.
