Inflation expectations fell before fuel excise restored

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Roy Morgan Research has released inflation expectations for September, which fell 0.2% to 5.4% over the month ahead of the restoration of the fuel petrol excise:

Australian inflation expectations

Inflation Expectations in September were still 0.9% points higher than a year ago, and 2.2% points above the record low of 3.2% reached just over two years ago in June 2020.

A deeper look at Inflation Expectations by employment status shows the largest increase has been for people who are unemployed, up 2.6% points to 6.4% since the measure reached a record low in June 2020. This is clearly the highest Inflation Expectations of any of the main employment categories reported.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.