People ditch New Zealand for Australia

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Despite the Ardern Government relaxing immigration rules significantly over the past six months, New Zealand experienced a net overseas migration (NOM) loss of 11,500 in the year to June 2022.

In turn, New Zealand’s population grew by only 12,700 (0.2%) in the June 2022 year, with Auckland’s population declining for two consecutive years:

New Zealand population growth

Nationally, annual population growth has slowed over the last two years, dropping from 2.2 percent in the June 2020 year, to 0.4 percent in the June 2021 year, and to 0.2 percent in the June 2022 year, the lowest since the late 1980s…

“This net migration loss was combined with the lowest natural increase since World War II”…

Auckland’s population continued to decline in the June 2022 year, after falling for the first time in June 2021. In the June 2022 year, Auckland’s population declined by 0.5 percent, slightly less than the decline in 2021 of 0.6 percent…

Population change

By contrast, Australia recorded its highest NOM on record in the March quarter, with 96,200 net migrants arriving:

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Net overseas migration

Largest quarterly NOM on record in Q1 2022.

Higher frequency visa data also shows a record lift in student visas and a strong increase in work visas over the September quarter:

International students boom

Student visas rocket.

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As we know, the Albanese Government has embarked on the largest immigration program in this nation’s history, announcing at last month’s Jobs & Skills Summit that it would target record permanent and temporary migration via:

  • Lifting Australia’s permanent non-humanitarian migrant intake by 35,000 to a record high 195,000;
  • Lifting temporary migration to record levels by:
    • Expanding work rights for international students via:
      • Uncapping the number of hours international students can work while studying for another year; and
      • Extending the length of post-study work visas by two years.
    • Committing to clear the ‘backlog’ of “nearly one million” visas awaiting approval.

It seems from the above data that Australia is winning the battle for migrants at the expense of New Zealand.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.