Albo energy package takes shape

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The RBA has made it plain how much the Albanese Government is reponsible for the inflation breakout:

“One way of tackling inflation induced by supply-side shocks is to address the supply said,” Dr Lowe told Senate estimates committee hearing on Monday.

“And if we can do something on energy and rents next year, inflation will come down quickly.”

In the common tongue that is a criticism of too much immigration, too fast and too slow redress of the energy shock.

Mind you, Lowe will probably backtrack and apologise tomorrow.

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The energy policy package is apparently taking shape:

Senior industry, federal and state government sources said the energy package – understood to have been signed off by a subcommittee of cabinet despite some internal divisions – will not include new taxes or direct payments that would overstimulate the economy and drive inflation higher.

Key policy principles applied, according to industry and state governments that have been briefed, include ensuring measures are meaningful in terms of impact on prices, avoiding negative impacts on long-term contracts, regulation before taxation, and respecting international trade agreements.

Government sources said cabinet was yet to decide on the final package, with several options on the table. They would not make major announcements until next week’s national cabinet meeting. Energy and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen will convene an energy ministers meeting in Brisbane on Thursday next week.

A proposal for a coal price cap will need co-operation from the states, with both the NSW and Queensland governments flagging their support. Other measures including increasing domestic gas reserves are likely to be addressed through a mandatory code of conduct on producers, with the government looking at “buyer of last resort” measures and winter stockpiling options

It will be a decent outcome if so. Although it does nothing to repatriate big energy’s blood profits, it does at least stop it from throwing war gore all over Australians.

The inclusion of coal is the real breakthrough of the past month. That is essential if NSW and QLD electricity prices are to be brought down. Sadly, global prices are going crazy again even as gas eases off:

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There is, perhaps, the first ray of light appearing for global prices. Europe is OK for the winter and emergency measures mean next winter may not be quite so difficult. It is still very weather-dependent:

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It is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is perhaps the end of the beginning.

However, local gas prices are still a bad cartel joke:

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And power futures remain terrifying:

As the cartel squeals like a stuck pig:

Increasing the tax burden on gas suppliers would undermine efforts to ease the price of domestic supplies, the chief financial officer of Santos has said, countering calls for fossil fuel producers to fund measures to reduce pressure on households and businesses.

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Do you know what else never lowered prices? Increasing supply when it is controlled by a cartel that would rather rort its countryman than behave in a manner befitting the privilege of extracting their resources.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.