Brisbane leads Aussie house prices lower

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CoreLogic’s daily house price index, which tracks values across the five major capitals, declined by 0.22% in the week ended 10 November – the 27th consecutive weekly decline:

CoreLogic weekly house price change

27th consecutive weekly decline in values.

Brisbane led the fall, with values down 0.47% over the week. Sydney (-0.26), Melbourne (-0.15%) and Adelaide (-0.07%) also fell whereas Perth values were flat:

Weekly house price changes

Brisbane leads nation’s house price decline.

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So far in November, home values are down 0.28% at the five city aggregate level, with Brisbane (-0.52%), Sydney (-0.33%) and Melbourne (-0.20%) leading the falls and Adelaide and Perth essentially flat:

November house price movements

‘Big three’ capital lead house price declines.

The quarterly decline in home values has moderated to 3.9%, with Brisbane (-5.6%) now falling the fastest. Sydney (-5.0%) and Melbourne (-3.0%) are also falling at a swift quarterly pace, whereas Adelaide and Perth values (both -0.8%) are holding up better:

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Quarterly house price decline

‘Big three’ capitals lead quarterly house price falls.

Finally, dwelling values at the 5-city aggregate level have fallen 7.0% from their peak, led by Sydney (-10.6%), Brisbane (-7.0%) and Melbourne (-6.6%). By contrast, Adelaide and Perth (-0.9%) have recorded only minor declines from peak:

Declines from peak

Sydney leads decline from peak, with Brisbane catching up.

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Thus, Brisbane has taken the mantle from Sydney as Australia’s fastest falling major capital city housing market.

This makes sense given Brisbane recorded the strongest price growth over the pandemic, with values rising an incredible 45% between February 2020 to its peak in June 2022.

Now Brisbane is experiencing a form of ‘mean reversion’, driven by the Reserve Bank’s aggressive monetary tightening.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.