Jacinda Ardern rises from political oblivion

Throughout the year, thinks were looking grim for New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

Her Labour Government was lagging badly in the polls behind the National Party, and both consumer and government confidence were at record lows.

With the prospect of further aggressive interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank to ward off stubbornly high inflation, alongside crashing house prices, it was hard to see how Labour could win next year’s election, in turn handing Ardern a third term.

However, the latest Roy Morgan polling has New Zealand’s election on a ‘knife’s edge’. While consumer and government confidence remain weak:

Labour/Greens (44.5%) have drawn even with National/Act NZ (44.5%), with support for smaller parties also increasing 1.5% points to 11%:

The gap between the two sides of politics has dissipated in October as support for the Labour/Greens coalition increased 2.5% points to 44.5% to be even with a potential National/Act NZ coalition, down 4% points to 44.5%.

In October the rise in support for the governing coalition was due to an increase in support for the Greens, up 3% points to 15.5% – a new record high for the left-of-centre party. In contrast, governing partners Labour lost further support, down 0.5% points to 29% – the lowest level of support for Labour since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to power over five years ago in October 2017…

If these results were repeated at next year’s New Zealand Election it would be the Maori Party, with 3% support and potentially four seats in the next Parliament, who would determine which of the two coalitions would form the next Government.

The National opposition is obviously the big loser, losing significant support in October, down 4% points to 32% – the lowest support for National Leader Chris Luxon since he became leader nearly a year ago.

However, Jacinda Ardern’s Labour also lost further support, down 0.5% points to 29%. This was the lowest level of support for Labour since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to power over five years ago in October 2017.

Commenting on the result, Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said that next year’s New Zealand Election is currently on a ‘knife’s edge’ with both major parties losing support in October while support has increased for the Greens, and other minor parties including NZ First and The Opportunities Party:

“The result means the decision on who will form Government after next year’s NZ Election could well rest with the Maori Party which now has 3% support. Aside from the Maori Party support has also increased for other minor parties vying to win seats in the new Parliament including NZ First, up 2.5% points to 3.5%, and The Opportunities Party, up 0.5% points to 3%”…

“As we close in on an election year it’s clear the ‘honeymoon’ is over for Luxon. Before now support for National had never dipped below 35% so far this year, but now questions are sure to be raised over whether Luxon is the leader to return National to Government later next year”.

“National’s impressive Deputy Leader Nicola Willis certainly presents as a strong candidate for leadership should faith in Luxon’s capabilities as a leader begin to wane”.

“Although the results from October aren’t good for National, they also aren’t positive for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and the Labour Party which dropped 0.5% points to 29% – the lowest level of support for Labour since the Ardern-led Government took office in October 2017″.

A month ago, I gave Jacinda Ardern minimal chance of winning next year’s election based on polling and the poor prospects for New Zealand’s housing market and economy.

However, National Leader Chris Luxon is more a business man than politician, and he has trouble cutting through with simple answers and communication.