Australia’s house price crash reaccelerates

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CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index, which tracks price changes across the five major capital city markets, fell another 0.29% in the week ended 8 November.

This was the 31st consecutive weekly price decline. The pace of decline has also reaccelerated, with value falls averaging 0.28% over the past four weeks, versus a 0.23% average decline over the prior four weeks:

Weekly Australian price fall

Weekly price falls reaccelerating.

Price falls were again concentrated across the three main capital cities – Sydney (-0.38%), Melbourne (-0.29%) and Brisbane (-0.31%). By contrast, Perth values only fell 0.08% and Adelaide values rose 0.05%:

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Weekly house price movements

‘Big three’ capitals lead house price falls.

The quarterly pace of decline has reaccelerated to -3.6% at 5-city aggregate level. Brisbane values (-5.4%) are fastest, followed by Sydney (-4.4%) and Melbourne (-2.8%). By contrast, Adelaide (-0.9%) and Perth (-0.7%) values are holding up well:

Quarterly house price changes

Brisbane now leading the house price bust.

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Dwelling values are now down 8.1% from their peak at the 5-city aggregate level, lead by Sydney (-11.9%), Melbourne (-7.5%) and Brisbane (-8.5%):

Changes from peak

Sydney leads decline from peak.

Finally, the next chart plots the decline from peak at the 5-city aggregate level and shows how prices fell sharply after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) began hiking interest rates:

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City dwelling values

RBA rate hikes drive property prices lower.

As you can see, the pace of decline remains swift. And Tuesday’s 0.25% rate hike from the RBA will keep the throat on the neck of Australia’s housing market, which is facing a record drawdown.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.