Recall that October’s federal budget projected 235,000 net overseas migration (NOM) this year and beyond:
On Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released overseas arrivals & departures figures, which showed that total annual net visa arrivals (excluding visitor visas) soared to 310,000 in November:
This lift in net visa arrivals has been driven by soaring net student and work visas, which boomed to 229,890 and 108,650 in the year to November respectively – both well above pre-pandemic levels:
Last month, education minister Jason Clare told The Australian there was still “a lot more work to do” to drive international student numbers higher, and that Labor “are rebuilding our international education sector [by] breaking the back of the visa backlog”.
Therefore, net student arrivals are certain to rocket higher in 2023, which will also drive net overseas migration to record levels that are well in excess of the federal budget’s 235,000 forecast.
In turn, Australia’s rental crisis will worsen, unemployment will rise, and wage growth will be suppressed.
This is great news to the business, property and education-migration lobbies, but bad news for ordinary Australians (especially those stuck in the rental market).
