Over the weekend, Brisbane house prices hit a new double-digit milestone, with values falling 10.1% from their mid-June peak, according to the CoreLogic daily dwelling values index:
Brisbane dwelling values have plunged at an astonishing rate since June 2022.
As shown in the next chart, this downturn is easily the steepest in Brisbane’s recorded history. The record 10.8% decline recorded over 20 months between 2010 and 2012 is also likely to be matched at the end of this month.
After that, this current housing downturn will be both the fastest and largest in Brisbane’s history:
Brisbane house price records are about to be smashed.
Brisbane’s home value decline remains rapid at -4.8% over the most recent quarter. That said, the pace of decline has slowed, down from the peak 5.6% quarterly decline recorded in November:
Brisbane dwelling values are still falling at a rapid pace.
Presuming that Australian home values fall all the way into Q4 this year, Brisbane home values could end up recording an epic 20% peak-to-trough decline over this cycle.
The primary reason why Brisbane home values are falling so rapidly is because they grew so strongly over the pandemic.
Brisbane home values rocketed 45.3% between end-February 2020 and end-June 2022 and currently remain 30.2% above their pre-COVID level:
A bigger price boom means a bigger bust.
This fast run-up in values meant that prices were bound to correct harder in response to the Reserve Bank’s aggressive monetary tightening.
We are currently witnessing a form of ‘mean reversion’ across Brisbane’s housing market, whereby values are pulling back sharply after rising too fast too quickly.
