Has Albo’s ‘Big Australia’ immigration already killed wage growth?

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Earlier this week, Macquarie Macro Strategy published the below chart showing the strong rebound in Australian immigration, which has already rebounded to pre-COVID levels:

Net immigration to Australia

IFM Investors’ chief economist, Alex Joiner, also posted the below chart showing that Australian labour supply has lifted to record high levels, which has obviously been driven to a large extent by the strong rebound in migrant workers:

Civilian population
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The strong lift in labour supply already appears to have taken the sting out of wage growth, with The Melbourne Institute’s consumer survey suggesting that actual Australian wage growth softened in January (chart below from Macquarie Macro Strategy):

Australian wage growth

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.