The latest immigration data shows that net overseas migration (NOM) has rocketed back, and has already exceeded the NOM forecasts in the October federal budget:
The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) latest data breaking down the contributors to Australia’s NOM in the 2021-22 financial year showed that international students are behind this resurgence. Specifically, 109,000 net student visa arrivals landed in Australia in the financial year, which was the second highest intake on record behind 2008-09 when 122,000 net students arrived:
Therefore, international student arrivals accounted for roughly two-thirds of Australia’s 171,000 NOM in 2021-22.
As noted by the 2022 Population Statement from the Orwellian Centre for Population, “offshore student visa grants from January to October 2022 were higher than the corresponding period since the 2006 calendar year. Increased access to post-study work options may contribute to stronger future demand for student visas. Unrestricted work rights
for students were extended in September 2022, and are planned to end in June 2023, which may contribute to some increased demand in the short-term”:
Accordingly, “the number of temporary visa holders in Australia has partially recovered due to an increase in temporary visa arrivals, particularly international students, since December 2021”:
According to a report published over the weekend in The AFR, foreign “students are already arriving in large numbers to take advantage of uncapped work hours”, and this should see universities “return to pre-pandemic levels, with new enrolments for this year making up for diminished numbers since 2020”:
“We are seeing a very robust rebound of international students in NSW, and indeed across Australia,” said Professor Barney Glover, chairman of the NSW Vice Chancellors’ Committee and vice chancellor of Western Sydney University.
“In particular, there is a strong response from South Asian countries, including India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.”
However, Leo Pascal Ross from the NSW Tenants’ Union warns that the surge in demand from international students is pressuring rental markets and driving rapid rental inflation:
Rental prices for apartments in the inner-Sydney suburbs of Haymarket, Rosebery, Ultimo and Pyrmont – epicentres for international students – have all increased about 30 per cent over the past year.
Inner-city Melbourne has had a 38 per cent year-on-year increase.
Conal Newland, from real estate services company Savills Australia, said he was witnessing a repeat of 2019 with soaring rental prices and high demand from international students.
“We’re seeing record levels of occupancy and record rental pricing levels so there’s going to be a lot of pressure on both purpose-built student accommodation and private rentals because the market just can’t keep up with the demand,” Mr Newland said.
Wollongong University says enrolments are set to equal or surpass numbers from 2019…
It is a similar situation at University of Technology Sydney, Newcastle, Western Sydney and the University of NSW.
The impact is especially evident across Sydney’s and Melbourne’s unit markets, which are experiencing extreme rental growth:
2023 is, therefore, shaping up to be a record year of immigration into Australia, driven by international students. In turn, rental markets will inevitably tighten, driving rents further into the stratosphere and placing lower income earners in extreme financial stress.
It is a housing and inequality disaster in the making.
