Below is a series of US and global macro charts from Cullen Roche at Pragmatic Capital:
Gotta start with t-bills at 4.75%. Savers aren’t being punished anymore. PS – ditch your “high yield” savings account paying 3-4% and buy the bills yourself. They’re effectively charging you 1-2%.
The 2022 bear market in context.
Appetite for Destruction: The most rapid tightening cycle by the Fed since the early 80’s.
The US Money Supply has fallen 1.7% over the last 8 months, the largest decline over a 8-month period on record
Firstly, housing in deep freeze is key. It’s especially relevant because the Fed is saying 4.4-4.7% unemployment for yearend 2023. Many realtors, mortgage brokers, chimney repair teams, carpet installation crews, masons and 100 other professions are going to have a tough 2023
The collapse in global shipping rates.
US Home prices fell in October for the 4th consecutive month. The 4-month decline of -3% is the largest decline in a decade. When the last housing bubble peaked in July 2006, prices fell 27% nationally. The same decline today would only bring home prices back to Aug 2020 levels.
