SQM Research has released its Stock on Market report for December, which recorded a 5.5% decrease in listings nationally over the month to be 4.6% higher year-on-year:
Interestingly, the number of properties on sale for more than six months rose by 14.3% in 2022, the biggest yearly increase since 2011:
The rise in unsold properties has been attributed to the property market downturn that has resulted from eight consecutive increases in the official cash rate since May, in which time dwelling values have fallen 8% nationally.
SQM Managing Director, Louis Christopher, noted that “stale stock is really starting to build up now”.
“The rise in older listings appears to be uniform across cities and townships”, according to Christopher, which “completely confirms the depth of this housing downturn and is very typical of what is recorded in past downturns”.
“As there remains more sellers than buyers, dwellings on the market that are not priced to market, don’t sell”.
Separate data from CoreLogic shows that “advertised supply is lower than usual”:
But “home sales have also declined”:
CoreLogic research director, Tim Lawless, warned that “the balance between the flow of new listings and number of home sales will be a key trend to watch through early 2023″. And if the usual surge in listings between February and Easter takes place “against the backdrop of higher interest rates and a further drop in buying activity, we could see housing prices responding negatively as advertised supply levels rise and vendors are forced to discount their prices more substantially”.
For mine, distressed property sales are the biggest thing to watch in 2023, alongside further interest rate hikes.
If rising interest rates and the fixed rate mortgage reset causes significant numbers of distressed sellers, then an orderly housing correction could easily turn into a full-blown price crash.
