Record fall in inflation expectations

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In a rare piece of good economic news, Roy Morgan Research has recorded its biggest monthly fall in inflation expectations on record, with Australians in January expecting inflation of 5.3% annually over the next two years, down 0.7% points from December 2022:

Inflation expectations

“This is the largest monthly fall on record for Inflation Expectations and the largest two-month fall (-1.2% points) in the index easily beating the previous record two-month fall during the first two months of the pandemic – down 0.7% points from March 2020 (4.0%) to May 2020 (3.3%)”, Roy Morgan says.

“The early indications in February are that the decline in Inflation Expectations seen in January 2023 has continued with the latest weekly reading falling to only 5.1%”.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.