The National Housing Finance & Investment Corporation’s (NHFIC) inaugural State of the Nation’s Housing report was released in December 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
NHFIC’s first report forecast that “cumulative new supply is expected to be around 93,000 higher than new demand by 2025”, thanks to the collapse in immigration:
The migrant epicentres of Greater Sydney and Greater Melbourne were also forecast by NHFIC to experience the largest surpluses of housing supply:
The latest demographic data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that the nation’s population grew by a record high 482,000 people in the 2022 calendar year off record net overseas migration of around 400,000:
Now NFIC’s latest State of the Nation’s Housing Report, released on Monday, is forecasting a dire shortage of housing, with demand expected to exceed supply by 124,100 dwellings over the five years to 2028:
Sydney and Melbourne, in particular, are now forecast to experience chronic housing shortages, thanks to record immigration:
To add further insult to injury, these housing forecasts are based on projected net overseas migration (NOM) of only 235,000, which is being easily exceeded:
Therefore, Australia is facing an even more brutal housing shortage than projected by NHFIC.
Commenting on its forecasts, NHFIC notes that “the reopening of international borders is expected to lead to a rapid recovery in net overseas migration and new household formation”.
“The short to medium term is likely to be dominated by a cyclical downturn in new supply, at a time of strong population growth”.
“This is likely to see household formation outpace new supply for several years, with adverse flow on effects for affordability”.
The impacts on the rental market will also be dire.
“Returning migration at a time of low vacancy rates is likely to result in upward pressure on rents”, NHFIC notes.
In particular, “rents are picking up strongly in the cities that receive the bulk of overseas workers and international students, such as Sydney and Melbourne”.
In short, the Albanese Government’s ‘Big Australia’ mass immigration policy will create a catastrophic shortage of housing, driving up rents and pushing thousands of Australians into homelessness.
It is appalling how far Anthony Albanese has deviated from his modest origins in public housing.
He would risk being thrown onto the streets if he were raised under current conditions.
