Australia’s rental market turns Hunger Games

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CoreLogic’s latest rental snapshot shows that capital city rents soared by 11.5% in the year to March, with double-digit rental growth recorded across each of the five major capitals:

Rental snapshot

The surge in rents has occurred on the back of a sharp fall in the vacancy rate to just 0.9%, which is around half the level of a year earlier (1.7%).

In line with the plunging vacancy rate, CoreLogic also reported that total rental listings across the combined capitals have fallen to at least a decade low:

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Number of homes for rent

CoreLogic’s findings have been confirmed by new data from PropTrack, which shows that the median time a rental property was listed on realestate.com.au before being rented fell to just 18 days in March, an equal record low:

Median days on market
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Days on market is significantly lower across the combined capital cities (17 days) than the regions (20 days), with the five largest capitals showing the most severe tightness:

Median days on market across capitals

In particular, rental markets in Melbourne and Sydney – which were weaker than other parts of the country during the pandemic – have tightened significantly in the past year, falling by 6 days in Melbourne and 4 days in Sydney.

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With vacancy rates sitting at extremely low levels and rents growing rapidly, PropTrack “expect rentals will continue to be speedily snapped up this year, as renters compete for limited stock”.

That’s what happens when Australia’s population grows at a record pace amid unprecedented immigration:

Australian population change
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Where will the hundreds of thousands of migrants arriving live when there is already a critical shortage of rental homes for the current population?

Australia’s rental market will soon descend into the Hunger Games.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.