Melbourne crowned nation’s ponzi king

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Revised data from the 2021 Census shows that Melbourne has regained its status as Australia’s biggest city in terms of population for the first time since 1905.

Initial analysis of the Census data showed that Sydney is the nation’s most populous city, but the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has since updated Melbourne’s boundary to include Melton, which was previously classified as a regional area.

This means that Melbourne’s official population is now 4,875,400, which is 18,700 more than Sydney.

Liz Allen, a demographer at the Australian National University, said one of the reasons why Melbourne’s population had been growing faster than Sydney’s in recent decades is due to its appeal to Indian migrants.

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“Melbourne has an air to it that diversity seems to be celebrated more”, Allen said, noting recent migration from India to Melbourne had led to a strong community which has established the city as a preferable destination for migrants from the subcontinent.

“Melbourne has established a pull factor, and we’ll continue to see it grow for some time”, she said.

The truth is that Melbourne overtook Sydney’s population years ago. It is just that the ABS’ boundaries were incorrect.

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Greater Sydney is formally defined as extending 120 kilometres north of the city centre to Lake Macquarie.

As a result, the densely populated NSW Central Coast, which the ABS classifies as Australia’s 9th largest “significant urban area” in its own right, increases Sydney’s population.

In contrast, Melbourne’s official definition excludes neighbouring Geelong, which is located nearer to Melbourne’s central business district than Gosford is to Sydney’s downtown.

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Therefore, if the Central Coast was excluded from Greater Sydney, its population would have fallen to 4,888,235 as at 2018, which was below Melbourne’s 4,963,349:

Adjusted city populations

Alternatively, if Greater Melbourne’s population included Greater Geelong, its population would have risen to 5,265,170, which was above Greater Sydney’s 5,230,330 as at 2018:

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Adjusted city populations 2

When comparing like with like, Melbourne’s population was already greater than Sydney’s.

Not that anyone should give a damn. Both cities have witnessed rapid population increase brought on by excessive immigration, which has severely strained housing, infrastructure, and standard of living.

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Widespread traffic congestion and shortages across all manner of economic and social infrastructure are now the norm. As are chronic housing affordability problems and reduced housing quality, as people are forced to live in shoe box apartments or miles away from amenities in dormitory suburbs on the fringe.

Melbourne’s population crush is also projected to get much worse.

The the Orwellian Centre for Population projects the number of people living in Melbourne will balloon from 5 million to 6.1 million over the next decade – the fastest growth in Australia – on the back of extreme net overseas migration:

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Population growth by city

Melburnians have also been told to prepare for chronic water shortages as the city’s population swells.

The unfortunate truth is that Victoria’s entire economic structure is based on importing large numbers of people and then providing them with housing, infrastructure, and services.

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This economic model has delivered more than ten years of falling living standards.

Expensive infrastructure projects like the Suburban Rail Loop boondoggle and the projected population boom are more of the same: a plan to juice headline growth while Melburnians standards of living collapse.

Victoria is Australia’s prime Ponzi economics state.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.