This week’s housing finance statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that refinancing activity has hit new highs, with $219 billion worth of mortgages refinanced in the year to February 2023:
That’s double the value of mortgages refinanced in the year to February 2020, just prior to start of the pandemic.
Refinancing activity is certain to increase through the remainder of this year given record volumes of fixed rate mortgages are scheduled expire over the June, September and December quarters.
As shown in the following chart from the Australian Bankers Association, around three times as many mortgages (222,800) will expire over the June quarter as did over the March quarter (78,300).
There will also be large volumes of fixed rate mortgage expirations in the quarters ending in September (208,000) and December (184,000):
These expirations will see borrowers convert from ultra cheap fixed rates of around 2% to variable rates of around 6%, thereby adding thousands of dollars a year in repayments on the typical mortgage.
Sydney homeowner Steven De Celis is a case in point. This week the 44 year old told The AFR that his $1.6 million fixed rate mortgage will expire in June, lifting his repayments from $69,000 a year to nearly $110,000.
“I’m going to get absolutely slammed”, De Celis said.
“I’m really nervous, to be honest. The pause this month is a relief. It will stop the haemorrhaging, for a bit, but who knows what happens next time”.
“We wait with bated breath for every RBA announcement. I just want my kids to have a good life”.
A recent survey from Canstar revealed that around one quarter of Australian mortgage holders are paying 6.5% or more on their variable rate loans, which is significantly higher than the lowest rate available on the market.
Westpac CEO Peter King also told The AFR Banking Summit that he was witnessing “the most competitive market I’ve seen in mortgages in my career”, meaning there are major savings to be had if borrowers shop around.
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