The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday released capital city population data for the 2020-21 financial year, which revealed that the number of people living in capital cities increased by 2.5 million (17%) between 2011 and 2021.
Melbourne had the largest increase (806,800), followed by Sydney (650,815) and Brisbane (421,491):
The next chart shows that over the past 20 years, Australia’s combined capital cities grew by 4.7 million people, led by Melbourne (1.48 million), Sydney (1.16 million), Brisbane (875,000) and Perth (737,000):
If anybody wants to know why Australia never builds enough homes, the above data provides the answer.
Australia’s immigration intake was increased substantially in the early-2000s, which drove a massive increase in population growth into our major cities:
This extreme immigration policy is projected to continue for decades to come, with the Intergenerational Report (IGR) projecting 235,000 annual net overseas migration into eternity, which is 20,000 more than the extreme immigration experienced in the 15 years leading up to the pandemic.
In turn, the IGR projected that Australia’s population would swell by 13.1 million people (roughly 50%) by 2061, which is the equivalent to adding a combined Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane to Australia’s current population.
Already, net overseas migration has rebounded faster than the IGR projected, with nearly 400,000 net migrants landing in 2022, which drove record population growth:
The below long-term population projections from the ABS are instructive. While they were released in 2018 and 2019 before the pandemic hit, they show the type of population deluge that will hit our major cities.
First, the ABS’ Household and Family Projections showed that the number of households across our capital cities would grow by 50% between 2016 and 2041, led by Melbourne:
In number terms, Melbourne was projected to add 1.09 million households over that period, whereas Sydney would add 882,000 and Brisbane 445,000:
The ABS’ Population Projections released in 2018 projected that Melbourne and Sydney would each roughly double in size to around 10 million people, whereas Brisbane would grow to Melbourne’s size currently:
In turn, by 2066 both Sydney and Melbourne would have larger populations than Australia’s total population in 1950, with both approaching Australia’s total population in 1960.
While these projections will have changed following COVID, they do illustrate the extent of the population-housing problem.
Policy makers and developers can bang on all they like about increasing supply, but Australia will never build enough homes as long as it continues to grow its population like a science experiment via mass immigration.
That is the inconvenient truth.
