Australian dollar flames out as risks mount

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DXY continues to skirt its great 101 suppert level. EUR sickened:

AUD flamed out:

Commodities are similar to DXY which is very unusual:

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Miners eased:

EM stocks are fat and flat:

Junk is more nearish than anything:

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As the curve flattened ito US CPI:

And stocks fell back:

We are approaching US CPI tomorrow (which is rumoured to be hot) and Janet Yellen moved the X-date forwards to June 1 for debt-ceiling negotiations.

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Both of these are DXY bullish, in my view. One on rates an other on safe-haven flows.

Add that the EUR bid looks exhausted:

And that any kind of volatility bounce will lift DXY:

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And we can conclude that the base case in the short term is for more AUD weakness.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.