May’s federal budget ramped up Australia’s net overseas migration (NOM) projections to unprecedented levels:
Source: 2023 Federal Budget
NOM was projected to reach a record 400,000 in 2022-23 before falling to 315,000 in 2023-24. Then NOM will fall to 260,000, where it will remain over the forward estimates.
Australia already looks to be beating these projections, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reporting that Australia’s population soared by a record 497,000 in calendar year 2022, off record NOM of 387,000:
As illustrated in the next chart, three of the past four quarters (i.e. March 2022, September 2022 and December 2022) were the three largest quarters of NOM on record:
NOM also hit all-time highs in NSW (134,600) and Victoria (120,500) in the 2022 calendar year:
Population growth surged to record highs in NSW (138,000) and Queensland (116,600), whereas Victoria’s population growth (137,700) was just below an all-time high:
Commenting on the results, ABS head of Demography Beidar Cho said the “recovery of international student arrivals is driving net overseas migration to historic highs, while departures are lagging behind levels typically seen over the past decade”.
“This pattern is expected to continue as international students return following the reopening of international borders, however there are fewer students ready to depart because very few arrived during the pandemic”, noted Cho.
Indeed, this week’s monthly overseas arrivals and departures data from the ABS showed that net permanent and long-term arrivals hit an all-time high 155,300 over the April quarter:
Moreover, net temporary visa arrivals (excluding travellers) soared to 463,200, with net student visa arrivals hitting 285,600 as at May:
Australia’s rental market is facing more pain based on this data, as population is soaring at the same time as dwelling construction is falling amid widespread builder collapses and rising interest rates:
As we know, the flood of students is largely coming from poorer nations like India and Nepal not to study but to work and live.
But where will the 1.5 million net overseas migrants projected to arrive in Australia by June 2027 work and live when unemployment is set to spike and there is already a dire shortage of homes for the existing population?
Albo’s Giant Australia is a housing and inequality disaster in the making.
