Queensland’s population boom is one for the ages

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The latest quarterly population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that Queensland led the nation’s population increase since the beginning of the pandemic (March 2020), growing by 192,300 over this period:

Population growth since start of pandemic

Queensland’s population growth was around double that of second-placed New South Wales (96,700).

Queensland’s surge in population growth has been driven by record high interstate migration, mostly from Sydney and Melbourne:

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Net internal migration

On Monday, the state government released population projections for Queensland, which shows ongoing explosive growth.

Queensland’s population is projected to grow from 5.22 million persons in 2021 to between 6.40 million and 8.27 million persons by 2046.

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Continued growth is expected to result in a population of between 6.99 million (low series) and 11.74 million persons (high series) by 2071.

Queensland population projections

The next chat plots the same data as a time series:

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Queensland population

“In each of the projection series [i.e. low, medium and high], net overseas migration is projected to make the greatest contribution to Queensland’s population, adding between 1.3 and 2.8 million persons over the 50 years to 2071”, a document outlining the projections said.

“This is followed by net interstate migration, which is expected to add a further 711,000 to 1.4 million persons by 2071″.

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“Over the 50 years to 2071, Queensland’s growth under the medium series of 3.99 million persons is projected to be made up of 48.8% net overseas migrants, 26.5% net interstate migrants, and 24.7% natural increase”.

It is unbelievable to think that Queensland’s population is projected to more than double in only 50 years (from 5.2 million to 11.7 million) under the high growth scenario.

We’re all Queenslanders now.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.