Aussie wage growth falls, appeasing RBA

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The immigration deluge has worked to kill Australian wage growth, with the June quarter wage price index (WPI) rising a tepid 0.8% for the quarter and by 3.6% over the year.

The private sector rose 0.8% and the public sector rose 0.7%.

Australian wage growth

The result badly missed analysts’ expectations of a 1.0% rise over the quarter.

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The result will also appease the RBA, which had forecast a peak of 4.1% annual wage growth in the September quarter:

RBA wage price forecasts

It also follows weaker than expected growth in enterprise agreement wages:

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Wage growth in enterprise agreements

The good news is that real wages remained steady over the June quarter. The bad news is that they are currently running at March 2009 levels, meaning 14 years of wage gains have evaporated:

Real wages
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This data has killed concern that Australia is experiencing a wage-price spiral.

In turn, the RBA should remain at hold at next month’s monetary policy meeting.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.