Roy Morgan Research has for years used the term “real unemployment” when reporting its alternative unemployment rate.
As shown in the next chart, Roy Morgan’s unemployment rate was 11.0% in August, around triple the 3.7% reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS):
On Monday, the Australian Treasury released its White Paper on Jobs, which suggested that Roy Morgan’s measure is closer to reality than the ABS’:
“While the unemployment rate continues to be the most widely used measure of spare capacity in the labour market, it provides an incomplete picture of underutilisation”.
“Measures such as the underemployment rate and the share of people outside the labour force who want to work are also needed to capture the full extent of spare capacity in the economy”.
“Today 2.8 million people in Australia want to work, or to work more hours than they do. This is equivalent to a fifth of the current workforce (Chart 2.1)”.
“For every person in Australia reported in the labour force statistics as unemployed, there are four others who want to work but are not actively searching or available to work, or who want to work more hours”.
“Together, the hours these people would like to work represent the equivalent of 1.4 million full-time jobs. The biggest contribution to underutilisation is from those who said they want to work but are not counted as unemployed and therefore not considered to be in the labour force”.
Irrespective, the Roy Morgan and ABS surveys tend to track each other over time. As shown in the next chart from Justin Fabo, the lift in Roy Morgan unemployment portends a significant rise in the official ABS unemployment rate:
Source: Justin Fabo (Macquarie Group)
This makes sense given the massive lift in labour supply via record inflows of migrant workers:
CBA estimates that Australia’s economy needs to generate around 35,000 jobs per month just to keep the unemployment rate stable:
Running a record immigration program into a slowing economy and during a housing crisis is suicidal policy from the Albanese Government.
It means Australian workers will suffer rising unemployment, sagging wage growth, and a worsening rental crisis.
