The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released two pieces of data on Thursday that should send shudders through every working Australian.
First, the official net overseas migration (NOM) data was released, which showed that the nation’s population swelled by an unprecedented 563,200 in the year to March 2023, driven by a record 454,300 net overseas migration (NOM):
The ABS also released its labour force survey for August, which showed that the civilian population aged 15 or above grew by a record 591,000 over the year, which is around double the pre-pandemic level:
AMP chief economist, Shane Oliver, published the below chart on Twitter showing how the ABS’ monthly arrivals data to June suggests that the official NOM and population growth will continue to grow:
Oliver also estimated that the economy needs to create 37,000 jobs a month just to keep the unemployment rate steady, assuming a stable participation rate.
CBA senior economist, Belinda Allen, gave a similar assessment, suggesting the nation’s unemployment rate will soon rise:
“Net overseas migration has been very strong. The latest numbers (to Q1 23) suggest it is running at ~500k, much higher than the forecasts contained in the May Budget”.
“New migrants generally have a higher attachment to the workforce. Cost of living pressures and the tight labour market have also seen the supply of labour shift higher”.
“As a result ~35k jobs need to be added each month to keep the unemployment rate steady. We calculate this number based on the current participation rate and working age population growth”.
“This is becoming more challenging each month as demand for labour slows”.
Independent economist, Tarric Brooker, noted on Twitter that in the 20 years prior to the pandemic, the Australian economy never created 37,000 jobs in a single month in trend terms:
Based on these facts, it is impossible to believe that the economy can create enough jobs to soak up the record number of migrants arriving in Australia, which necessarily means unemployment rise.
Roy Morgan’s alternative unemployment measure is already proving this fact. It’s unemployment rate has lifted to 11.0% – its highest level since March 2021 – due to record labour supply growth outpacing job creation:
Based on historical correlations, Roy Morgan’s data points to rising ABS unemployment:
SEEK data also shows that the average number of applications per job ad has risen well above pre-pandemic levels, signalling a significant rise in ABS unemployment:
To put it bluntly, the Albanese Government’s record immigration is a disaster for working Australians.
Not only is it directly increasing their housing costs via prices and rents, soon it will also push unemployment higher and stifle wage growth.
The only winners from this mad policy are the ‘growth lobby’ of Big Business, Big Property and the international education industry.
