Jim Chalmers caught lying on Australian wages

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Treasurer Jim Chalmers told Parliament on 11 September that the average full-time worker was $3,700 better off in the first year of the Albanese government:

Lying Chalmers on wages

However, ABC Fact Check has labelled Chalmers’ claim “misleading”, pointing out that his claim does not take inflation into account, which outstripped the growth in earnings by six percentage points over the year to 30 June as measured by the consumer price index (CPI).

Lying chalmers
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In fact, average full-time wages fell in real terms by $2,012.92 over Labor’s first year in office:

Change in average earnings

Source: ABS Fact Check

Moreover, if average earnings are adjusted to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) selected cost of living indexes (SCLIs), which are designed to measure inflation in a more targeted way, then purchasing power of total wages went backward by $5,470.40 a year, according to Fact Check:

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Real average earnings

Source: ABS Fact Check

“Earnings have gone backwards, it’s as simple as that”, David Hayward, an emeritus professor of public policy at RMIT University, said.

The below charts tell the tale.

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Australian real wages have plummeted to March 2009 levels after falling 7.5% since June 2020:

Australian real wages

Moreover, Australian households have given up all of the stimulus-driven income gains from the pandemic, with real per capita household disposable income plunging to early 2019 levels, which was little changed from 2010:

Real household income
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So that’s 13 years of almost zero per capita income growth.

The situation facing Australian households will continue to worsen given average mortgage repayments will continue to rise as large numbers of cheap fixed-rate mortgages expire and revert to higher variable rates.

In turn, debt repayments as a share of household income will climb to record highs in 2024:

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Housing debt costs

Australian households also face an extended period of real income cuts as wages continue to lag inflation.

Unemployment will also rise as record labour supply via immigration meets lower labour demand as the economy continues to slow.

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Labour supply growth

In turn, Australians face a continued decline in living standards amid a deep per capita recession, falling real wages, soaring mortgage repayments and rents, and crush-loaded housing, infrastructure, and services.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has chosen to lie about the situation.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.