Listings surge to dampen Aussie house prices

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SQM Research has released property listings data for September which shows that total property listings surged by 9.3% over the month to be 1.4% higher year-on-year:

Total property listings

Source: SQM Research

For the month of September, Sydney saw a 12.2% increase in total listings, driven by a 12.7% increase in new listings. Total listings in Melbourne increased by 10.5%, driven by a 10% increase in new listings.

Canberra had the highest percentage growth of any capital city, with a 16% increase in total listings, driven by a 13.9% increase in new listings.

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The surge in listings can be attributed to a large rise in new listings across all capital cities:

New Listings

Source: SQM Research

New listings (less than 30 days) increased 14.3% nationally in September, adding 77,621 new property listings to the market. Sydney, Melbourne, and Canberra, in particular, surpassed the national average, increasing by 12.7%, 10.0%, and 13.9%, respectively.

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Older listings (greater than 180 days) have also surged:

Old Listings

Source: SQM Research

Commenting on the results, SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said the Spring selling season is ramping up:

“The spring selling season is living up to its name once more with a large jump in new listings for September. Nationally, September was the strongest new listings month since April 2022. It was also the strongest September since 2018″.

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“The pick up in new listings is a sign of confidence from vendors that the current market is offering good selling conditions. Buyers would also be noticing the increase in choice of stock”.

“However, a note of caution as we also did record a rise in older stock which suggests there are vendors with overly lofty pricing expectations in the market. And while activity has increased in 2023, it is not a boom market by any means”.

CoreLogic’s September housing market report also showed a large increase in new listings well above the five year average:

New Listings

Source: CoreLogic

Logically, the surge in new listings should put downward pressure on house prices. That said, overall listings are still low, running 17.1% below the five average:

Total listings

Source: CoreLogic

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Thus, while growth should slow, prices should continue to rise amid the nation’s record population growth.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.