BCA with the note.
The Fed’s ‘Sahm rule’ real-time recession indicator signals the start of a US recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percent from its low during the previous 12 months.
But the better ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator signals the start of a US recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate of ‘job losers not on temporary layoff’ rises by 0.20 percent from its low during the previous 12 months.