Last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its official population statistics for the June quarter, which showed that Australia’s population ballooned by a record 624,000 in 2022-23 driven by net overseas migration (NOM) of 518,000:
In a rare showing of honestly, The Age responded with an article warning that Australia’s rental crisis will remain for “years to come”:
“There is no normalisation of rental markets in sight for cities and regions across Australia. This will only put pressure on an overheating rental market”, Matt King from community housing organisation PowerHousing Australia said.
As we already know, Australia’s rental vacancy rate is running at a record low of 1.0% across the combined capital cities, according to CoreLogic:
Source: CoreLogic
Advertised rents have also soared by around 30% over the past three years:
As shown in the next chart, Australia’s population growth is booming at the same time as actual dwelling construction has collapsed:
Australia’s net overseas migration is officially forecast to moderate to an historically high 375,000 next year and 250,000 the year after:
However, this is cold comfort to renters, given housing construction rates are also likely to fall.
The ABS’ dwelling approvals data shows that only 164,200 homes were approved for construction in the year to October – the lowest level in a decade:
Even if all of these homes were built, Australia’s housing stock would only increase by around 150,000 once demolitions are accounted for. That is far less than what will be needed.
Loans for the purchase and construction of a new home are also tracking at historical lows, according to the ABS:
This means that Australia’s housing shortages will continue to worsen as the Albanese government’s mass immigration policy swamps supply, driving rents further into the stratosphere, and forcing more Australians to live in group housing or to become homeless.
Welcome to the perma rental crisis.
