The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released retail sales data for January, which rose by 1.1% over the month to be also 1.1% higher year-on-year:
The result disappointed economists’ expectations of a 1.5% monthly rebound.
It also suggests that retail sales volumes fell heavily over the year when adjusted for CPI inflation (circa 4%) and population growth (circa 2.5%).
Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, noted:
“The rebound in January follows a sharp fall in December when consumers pulled back on spending after taking advantage of Black Friday sales in November. Retail turnover is now back at a similar level to September 2023”.
“Retail turnover was unchanged in trend terms in January. This means there has been no growth in retail turnover when we look through the volatility of the past few months”.
Source: ABS
Turnover rebounded in all the non-food industries following last month’s heavy falls.
Source: ABS
The ABS also noted that major events assisted sales of prepared food:
“Spending in cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services was boosted this month by large sporting events lifting turnover more than usual”.
“Bumper crowds for the Australian tennis summer and the Big Bash League boosted sales in catering services, which are part of this industry”, Dorber said.
We should expect a similar boost from the Taylor Swift concerts in February’s data.
Nevertheless, retail sales remain recessionary when adjusted for inflation and population growth.
