Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro published the below chart showing that labour shortages are rapidly easing across Australia:
Low-skilled positions, in particular, have become much easier to find, with the share of employers reporting recruitment difficulties falling to pre-pandemic levels.
The data makes sense in light of the record surge in international students, with the latest Department of Home Affairs data showing that there were a record 713,000 student visa holders in Australia in February 2024:
International students tend to work in low-skilled occupations like hospitality while studying.
Moreover, the Migration Review showed that more than half (51%) of international student graduates with bachelor’s degrees work in low-skilled jobs like delivery workers, cleaners, baristas, and waiters:
Thus, the massive rise in student and graduate visas has driven an oversupply of low-skilled workers.
More broadly, SEEK data shows that the number of applicants per job ad has surged around 60% above pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that labour supply is outstripping demand:
Given the latest surge in net overseas migration reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), labour supply should continue to grow at a robust pace:
Source: Alex Joiner
As a result, it is only a matter of time before unemployment jumps, especially among younger cohorts competing against the deluge of international students.
