The Melbourne Institute’s headline and trimmed mean monthly inflation gauges for Australia declined in April, easing inflation concerns.
Headline inflation rose by only 0.09% in April to be 3.68% higher year-on-year (a two-year low):
Source: Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
The core measure, trimmed mean, was only 0.15% in April to be up 3.18% year-on-year—the lowest result since June 2022:
Source: Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
Excluding volatiles, the MI inflation gauge has bombed, falling 0.04% in three-month average terms:
Source: Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
That said, Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro has cautioned that the MI inflation gauge has not provided a reliable read on the ABS data in recent times:
Nevertheless, when viewed alongside last week’s collapse in retail sales, it suggests that talk of rate hikes was premature.
