Australian dollar heads down into year end

DXY is looking pretty firm:

Leaving AUD in the dirt:

North Asia is going only one way. CNY is slowly deteriorating:

Gold and oil were pressured:

Most metals too:

Miners meh:

EM is giving up as the Chinese rally rolls over:

Junk is still warning:

The curve was roughly stable:

As stocks gave some back:

As we roll towards H2, the headwinds for the AUD are once again intensifying:

• The US election race is about to begin, with the first debate scheduled only one month hence and tariffs a central theme.
• The Chinese property rescue is off to a poor start. This is by design, in my view.
• CNY and JPY are chronically weak.
• The likelihood continues to grow that the Federal Reserve will lag not lead any easing this year or next.
• Asset markets are still driven primarily by AI themes not very friendly to Australia.
• A global soft landing remains the base case. Fully priced bulk commodities are likely to underperform.
• Bearish positioning in the AUD has pulled back.

There are plenty of reasons here to expect a weak H2 for the Australian dollar.