Chinese “completions cliff” arrives

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A couple of notes from BCA make some good points about the prospects for Chinese growth.

First up. property! Or, rather down:

Crucially, the previous CNY 1.88tr funding package was fully dispersed last year. Back of the envelope calculations suggest that replacing the stimulus program with the newly announced CNY 500bn would result in a 9.5% year-on-year decline in property developer funding.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.